The role of ROX index-based intubation in COVID-19 pneumonia: a cross-sectional comparison and retrospective survival analysis.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with acute respiratory failure who experience delayed initiation of invasive mechanical ventilation have poor outcomes. The lack of objective measures to define the timing of intubation is an area of concern. We investigated the effect of timing of intubation based on respiratory rate-oxygenation (ROX) index on the outcomes of COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study performed in a tertiary care teaching hospital in Kerala, India. Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who were intubated were grouped into early intubation (within 12 hours of ROX index <4.88) or delayed intubation (12 hours or more hours after ROX <4.88). RESULTS: A total of 58 patients was included in the study after exclusions. Among them, 20 patients were intubated early, and 38 patients were intubated 12 hours after ROX index <4.88. The mean age of the study population was 57±14 years, and 55.0% of the patients were male; diabetes mellitus (48.3%) and hypertension (50.0%) were the most common comorbidities. The early intubation group had 88.2% successful extubation, while only 11.8% of the delayed group had successful extubation (P<0.001). Survival was also significantly more frequent in the early intubation group. CONCLUSIONS: Early intubation within 12 hours of ROX index <4.88 was associated with improved extubation and survival in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Cohort profile: the Scottish Diabetes Research Network national diabetes cohort - a population-based cohort of people with diabetes in Scotland.

PURPOSE: The Scottish Diabetes Research Network (SDRN)-diabetes research platform was established to combine disparate electronic health record data into research-ready linked datasets for diabetes research in Scotland. The resultant cohort, 'The SDRN-National Diabetes Dataset (SDRN-NDS)', has many uses, for example, understanding healthcare burden and socioeconomic trends in disease incidence and prevalence, observational pharmacoepidemiology studies and building prediction tools to support clinical decision making. PARTICIPANTS: We estimate that >99% of those diagnosed with diabetes nationwide are captured into the research platform. Between 2006 and mid-2020, the cohort comprised 472 648 people alive with diabetes at any point in whom there were 4 million person-years of follow-up. Of the cohort, 88.1% had type 2 diabetes, 8.8% type 1 diabetes and 3.1% had other types (eg, secondary diabetes). Data are captured from all key clinical encounters for diabetes-related care, including diabetes clinic, primary care and podiatry and comprise clinical history and measurements with linkage to blood results, microbiology, prescribed and dispensed drug and devices, retinopathy screening, outpatient, day case and inpatient episodes, birth outcomes, cancer registry, renal registry and causes of death. FINDINGS TO DATE: There have been >50 publications using the SDRN-NDS. Examples of recent key findings include analysis of the incidence and relative risks for COVID-19 infection, drug safety of insulin glargine and SGLT2 inhibitors, life expectancy estimates, evaluation of the impact of flash monitors on glycaemic control and diabetic ketoacidosis and time trend analysis showing that diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) remains a major cause of death under age 50 years. The findings have been used to guide national diabetes strategy and influence national and international guidelines. FUTURE PLANS: The comprehensive SDRN-NDS will continue to be used in future studies of diabetes epidemiology in the Scottish population. It will continue to be updated at least annually, with new data sources linked as they become available.

User-Centered Design of A Novel Risk Prediction Behavior Change Tool Augmented With an Artificial Intelligence Engine (MyDiabetesIQ): A Sociotechnical Systems Approach.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and its complications account for 10% of annual health care spending in the United Kingdom. Digital health care interventions (DHIs) can provide scalable care, fostering diabetes self-management and reducing the risk of complications. Tailorability (providing personalized interventions) and usability are key to DHI engagement/effectiveness. User-centered design of DHIs (aligning features to end users' needs) can generate more usable interventions, avoiding unintended consequences and improving user engagement. OBJECTIVE: MyDiabetesIQ (MDIQ) is an artificial intelligence engine intended to predict users' diabetes complications risk. It will underpin a user interface in which users will alter lifestyle parameters to see the impact on their future risks. MDIQ will link to an existing DHI, My Diabetes My Way (MDMW). We describe the user-centered design of the user interface of MDIQ as informed by human factors engineering. METHODS: Current users of MDMW were invited to take part in focus groups to gather their insights about users being shown their likelihood of developing diabetes-related complications and any risks they perceived from using MDIQ. Findings from focus groups informed the development of a prototype MDIQ interface, which was then user-tested through the "think aloud" method, in which users speak aloud about their thoughts/impressions while performing prescribed tasks. Focus group and think aloud transcripts were analyzed thematically, using a combination of inductive and deductive analysis. For think aloud data, a sociotechnical model was used as a framework for thematic analysis. RESULTS: Focus group participants (n=8) felt that some users could become anxious when shown their future complications risks. They highlighted the importance of easy navigation, jargon avoidance, and the use of positive/encouraging language. User testing of the prototype site through think aloud sessions (n=7) highlighted several usability issues. Issues included confusing visual cues and confusion over whether user-updated information fed back to health care teams. Some issues could be compounded for users with limited digital skills. Results from the focus groups and think aloud workshops were used in the development of a live MDIQ platform. CONCLUSIONS: Acting on the input of end users at each iterative stage of a digital tool's development can help to prioritize users throughout the design process, ensuring the alignment of DHI features with user needs. The use of the sociotechnical framework encouraged the consideration of interactions between different sociotechnical dimensions in finding solutions to issues, for example, avoiding the exclusion of users with limited digital skills. Based on user feedback, the tool could scaffold good goal setting, allowing users to balance their palatable future complications risk against acceptable lifestyle changes. Optimal control of diabetes relies heavily on self-management. Tools such as MDMW/ MDIQ can offer personalized support for self-management alongside access to users' electronic health records, potentially helping to delay or reduce long-term complications, thereby providing significant reductions in health care costs.

Risks of and risk factors for COVID-19 disease in people with diabetes: a cohort study of the total population of Scotland.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to ascertain the cumulative risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes and compare it with that of people without diabetes, and to investigate risk factors for and build a cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 among people with diabetes. METHODS: In this cohort study, we captured the data encompassing the first wave of the pandemic in Scotland, from March 1, 2020, when the first case was identified, to July 31, 2020, when infection rates had dropped sufficiently that shielding measures were officially terminated. The participants were the total population of Scotland, including all people with diabetes who were alive 3 weeks before the start of the pandemic in Scotland (estimated Feb 7, 2020). We ascertained how many people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in this period from the Electronic Communication of Surveillance in Scotland database (on virology), the RAPID database of daily hospitalisations, the Scottish Morbidity Records-01 of hospital discharges, the National Records of Scotland death registrations data, and the Scottish Intensive Care Society and Audit Group database (on critical care). Among people with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, diabetes status was ascertained by linkage to the national diabetes register, Scottish Care Information Diabetes. We compared the cumulative incidence of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with and without diabetes using logistic regression. For people with diabetes, we obtained data on potential risk factors for fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 from the national diabetes register and other linked health administrative databases. We tested the association of these factors with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes, and constructed a prediction model using stepwise regression and 20-fold cross-validation. FINDINGS: Of the total Scottish population on March 1, 2020 (n=5 463 300), the population with diabetes was 319 349 (5·8%), 1082 (0·3%) of whom developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 by July 31, 2020, of whom 972 (89·8%) were aged 60 years or older. In the population without diabetes, 4081 (0·1%) of 5 143 951 people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19. As of July 31, the overall odds ratio (OR) for diabetes, adjusted for age and sex, was 1·395 (95% CI 1·304-1·494; p<0·0001, compared with the risk in those without diabetes. The OR was 2·396 (1·815-3·163; p<0·0001) in type 1 diabetes and 1·369 (1·276-1·468; p<0·0001) in type 2 diabetes. Among people with diabetes, adjusted for age, sex, and diabetes duration and type, those who developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were more likely to be male, live in residential care or a more deprived area, have a COVID-19 risk condition, retinopathy, reduced renal function, or worse glycaemic control, have had a diabetic ketoacidosis or hypoglycaemia hospitalisation in the past 5 years, be on more anti-diabetic and other medication (all p<0·0001), and have been a smoker (p=0·0011). The cross-validated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes had a C-statistic of 0·85 (0·83-0·86). INTERPRETATION: Overall risks of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were substantially elevated in those with type 1 and type 2 diabetes compared with the background population. The risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, and therefore the need for special protective measures, varies widely among those with diabetes but can be predicted reasonably well using previous clinical history. FUNDING: None.